EPB Macro Research Blog
The US Economy Has An Identity Crisis
The national savings and investment identity provides a critical framework to understand the flow of financial capital and determine the possible implications of increasing budget deficits.
The Earnings Gap: Why The S&P 500 Is Against The Clock
Over the past decade, the heavy hand of central banks and the ubiquitous coverage of Fedspeak has formed a compelling narrative surrounding the deviation of stock prices from fundamentals. Despite this ingrained justification for rising share prices, a historical analysis of the data argues that stock prices are still closely associated with fundamentals, namely earnings per share “EPS.”
“The Greatest Pull Forward In History”: Why This Recession Is Different, Similar & Worse
A long history of recessions, dating back to the founding of the republic, has allowed us to create a template for a typical downturn in the economy. The COVID recession, mostly thanks to unprecedented government action, has distinct differences from the historical recessionary outline.
3 Reasons Treasury Rates Can Still Hit 0%: Part III
In the final part of this trilogy, we discuss long-run economic growth potential and suggest that real growth is going to fall materially short of consensus expectations at the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office.
3 Reasons Treasury Rates Can Still Hit 0%: Part II
In Part II of this three-part series, we continue to explore three main factors that will continue to push Treasury rates lower, possibly near 0% on the long-end of the curve.
3 Reasons Treasury Rates Can Still Hit 0%: Part I
The inflation vs. deflation debate remains one of the more hotly contested ideas in the marketplace today. The inflation hawks argue precious metals are a one-way street higher while cash is trash, and bonds are worthless. The deflationary crowd continues to play with the multi-decade trend arguing that interest rates are not done falling, and more gains are left with nominal Treasury bonds.