Blog EPB Macro Research on YouTube The Long-Run Impact of Growing Budget DeficitsLarger federal deficits will result in lower private domestic investment based on the National Savings and Investment Identity. Less investment into the economy will translate to weaker productivity growth. Weaker productivity growth and worsening demographic trends means lower economic growth is the most probable path as a result of larger budget deficits. Will Congress Delay The Deflation? | Stimulus UpdateThe CARES Act pushed real personal income way above the trend line established over the last five years. Without more stimulus, total income is going to fall well below trend, setting off a sequence of more classic recessionary or deflationary symptoms like lower consumption, missed payments, and defaults. Why Today’s Fiscal Stimulus Is Not Like WWII | The World War II Spending ComparisonWhy Today’s Fiscal Stimulus Is Not Like WWII – Today’s fiscal stimulus will not be as effective as the WWII period in stimulating lasting economic growth. Differences between today and the WWII period are numerous, including different trajectories of population growth, different national savings rate, and a different starting level of debt. Can Fiscal Spending Create Real Growth? | MMT Spending ExplainedCan Fiscal Spending Create Real Growth? – Fiscal spending will not create real growth. In fact, at current levels of debt, additional fiscal spending will lead to a worsening rate of real GDP growth. Debt levels are too high and passed all well-studied critical thresholds. Is QE Inflationary? | Quantitative Easing ExplainedIs Quantitative Easing Inflationary? – No. QE is not inflationary because newly created money does not make its way into the real economy. QE can boost speculation in financial markets, but new money generally comes from new bank loans or fiscal spending from the Treasury/Congress.